Chinks in the Armor

After a blistering start to the season, the Hawks have lost three of their last four and are coming off a truly uninspiring performance on Sunday in Detroit. One of my biggest concerns entering this season was how this team would do on the boards. In their last two losses, they have been out-rebounded an astounding 106 to 68. The team still holds a rebounding differential of +0.8 on the season, and that ranks fourth in the Eastern Conference. Coach Mike Woodson needs to maintain this advantage moving forward if the team hopes to enter the playoffs with home court advantage in the first round.

Captain Joe Johnson has also struggled over the team’s last five games. He is shooting just 34.5 percent during that stretch, averaging only 14.8 points per game. Johnson typically goes through a few stretches like this every season, but rarely has he dealt with shooting slumps so early in the season. Ironically, Johnson is averaging more shots per game than in either of the past two seasons, despite playing less minutes and having a better supporting cast than ever. Joe Cool needs to refocus on being a distributor as much as a shooter. He’s generally regarded as one of the best ball-handlers and passers for his position, but his current assist rate (4.4 apg) is his lowest since his days in Phoenix.

Marvin Williams has also returned to his phantom performances. He is averaging less than seven points over his last three games, to go with four rebounds per game. Aside from his 29-point outburst against the Rockets, Williams has been a supreme disappointment this season. That was the only game in which he scored more than 17 points. He has been held to single digits in 10 of 15 November games despite playing more than 29 minutes per night.

On the season, the starters minus Williams and plus Jamal Crawford are a +92 while on the floor together. The starting five is +28, or about a third as effective.

Thankfully, six of the Hawks next eight games are in Atlanta and just two teams in that stretch (the Mavericks and Jazz) hold records over .500. Five of those games will come against some of the worst (record-wise) teams in the league. They then play five of their next six on the road, finishing the month with two games against the Cavaliers.

December prediction: 10-4. It’s an easier schedule than November and the Hawks should remain among the top four teams in the Eastern Conference heading into 2010.