What Are the Chances…?
October 16th, 2009 | by coryelfrink |Josh Smith sets career highs across the board?
To do this, Smith would have to produce 17.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.0 blocks, and 1.6 steals, while shooting 49.3% from the field and 72% from the line. A lot has been expected from Smith for a while, but his collapse in shot-blocking and free-throw shooting last season is a huge concern. I think the above numbers aside from blocks are all attainable for the soon-to-be 24-year-old. Blocking three shots per game is incredibly unlikely.
Verdict: 5%. Minus the blocks, 25%.
Marvin Williams has a breakout season?
Williams has been incredibly average for a starting small forward over the last three seasons. Is this what he is, or is the 23-year-old poised for a breakout campaign? For Williams to “break out”, I need to see 17 points, 7.5 rebounds, and a block and steal per game. Hitting a three-pointer per game would help too. He has all the skill to reach these numbers, but I question Williams’ commitment, especially after signing a big money extension.
Verdict: 20%
Joe Johnson plays his best basketball in the playoffs?
Johnson has logged 18 playoff games over the last two postseasons, but only four of those games did we see the best Johnson had to offer. I think a big reason for this is that Johnson has been in the top three in the league in minutes played in each of the last three seasons. By picking up Crawford, Johnson should be able to significantly slice his minutes this season. For his career, Johnson has 33 postseason games under his belt, and I think this is the season he brings his best basketball to the playoffs. Plus, he’s playing for a contract.
Verdict: 60%
Mike Bibby’s post all-star break slump continues into this season?
Bibby’s decline at the end of last season and in the playoffs has to be a big concern. He’s only 31, but he seems to have aged very quickly over the past three years. He signed on for three more years at a reasonable $18 million this past summer, but hopefully he is still motivated by winning. He was merely an average starting point guard last season, and I do not see that changing this season. He should be good enough to hold onto the job, but I expect him to defer more than ever to his talented young teammates.
Verdict: 51%
Al Horford averages a double-double?
Through two seasons, Horford has career averages of 10.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. However, his rebounding inexplicably declined during his sophomore season. Before a late season surge, he was in danger of averaging less than nine boards per game. He is generally regarded as one of the better young centers in the league, but it’s about time he plays like it. Horford must average a double-double this season and a significant uptick in scoring would be nice as well.
Verdict: 85%
Jamal Crawford wins the Sixth Man of the Year Award?
There’s no shortage of quality sixth men in the NBA. Jason Terry, Manu Ginobili, Lamar Odom, J.R. Smith, Ben Gordon, Rasheed Wallace, and Leandro Barbosa are some of the best. But in 2009-10 Atlanta will have a bona fide candidate for this award for the first time in years. Crawford will bring a ton of energy off of the bench and should be a dynamic scorer for the Hawks’ second unit. Furthermore, there’s a good chance that he’s on the floor in crunch time as well. The addition of Crawford alone is worth a couple of wins for the Hawks this season and if they are competing for the Southeast division title with Orlando and Washington, Crawford will be a big reason why.
Verdict: 25%
The Hawks have home court in the first round?
Many have all ready penciled in the Celtics, Cavaliers, and Magic to win their divisions, and at this point that seems to be a safe bet. That leaves only one spot in the Eastern Conference up for home court advantage in the first round, and there’s good reason to believe that the team will emerge from the Southeast division. The Bulls would need collective improvement in order to compete for the fourth best record. The Wizards are immensely better than a season ago, and Flip Saunders has a long reputation of winning. The Hawks are the incumbent and they too got better in the offseason. Home court in the first round could boil down to the four games between the Hawks and Wizards this season and I expect those teams to be the four and five seeds in the East. Beating the Wizards in the playoffs will be hard enough, but the task becomes significantly more daunting without home court.
Verdict: 50%
The Hawks bring Atlanta their first NBA Championship?
Yeah, probably not. But if Smith and Williams deliver career years, Crawford develops into a beast off of the bench, Bibby and Johnson deliver their best basketball in the postseason, and Horford takes a leap into the next tier of centers, the Hawks can compete. Of course, that is asking a lot. What are the chances?
Computing those verdicts above: 0.31%
Then again, Vegas is giving 30:1 odds, or 3.3%. I like the Hawks, but apparently those in the know like them 10 times as much.
